Brexit may slightly slow currency inflow to Ukraine investment - experts

29.06.2016 р., 16:35

"The results of the referendum will likely cause prices on the commodity markets to fall and this could affect inflow of foreign currency from exporters. The U.S. dollar would strengthen against all currencies, and this could be an additional factor pressing on the hryvnia exchange rate," Senior Expert of the currency transactions and currency market department at OTP Bank Mykyta Mishakov said. Analyst from UniCredit Bank Andriy Prykhodko said that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and some other currencies would be temporary. "News about the results of the referendum in UK has affected the pound and euro, and they continue tumbling due to panic in the near term. In the medium-term outlook, exchange rates will stabilize, and the pound and euro could win back their previous positions," he said. Senior Economist at Dragon Capital Olena Belan said that a slight weakening of the hryvnia amid increased volatility of exchange rates of the key foreign currencies could be seen. However, this will probably have little influence on the national currency. "The interbank currency market is toughly regulated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), and international reserves exceed the three-month imports threshold. Today's situation demonstrates why the regulator chosen a gradual approach to lifting currency restrictions. The regulator still has many tools to resist to possible panic and a dash for foreign currency," the expert said. Belan said that the situation could worsen if Brexit provokes a long global financial crisis. Today the likelihood of this scenario is small, she added. Mishakov said that Ukraine could take a back seat in the process of implementing the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. "One should not wait for a quick resolution of the issue in the near term," the expert said. Brexit will definitely create many internal political problems for EU leaders, Belan said. This means Ukraine could disappear from radars of its European partners, she said. Head of the analytics department at Concorde Capital Oleksandr Paraschiy said that some delays in the processes from the EU could be seen, but this would not significantly influence the implementation of the Association Agreement. Prykhodko believes that the UK's decision will likely pose obstacles for Ukraine's further integration into the EU following implementation of the Association Agreement.

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